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AP-GfK Poll: Most expect Republican victory

October 21, 2014

WASHINGTON (AP) — Two weeks before Election Day, most likely American voters now expect the Republican Party to take control of the U.S. Senate and with it full control of Congress, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. And by a growing margin, they say that’s the outcome they’d prefer.

But the survey suggests many won’t be eager when they do vote. Most voters likely to cast ballots have a negative impression of the Republican Party, and 7 in 10 are dissatisfied by its leaders in Congress.

The Democrats win few accolades themselves. Impressions of the party among likely voters have grown more negative in the past month. In fact, Democrats are more trusted than the Republicans on just two of nine top issues, the poll showed.

The economy remains the top issue for likely voters — 91 percent call it “extremely” or “very” important. And the Republicans have increased their advantage as the party more trusted to handle the issue to a margin of 39 percent to 31 percent.

With control of the Senate at stake — Republicans already control the House of Representatives — both parties say they are relying on robust voter-turnout operations and monster campaign spending to lift their candidates in the final days. But the poll suggests any appeals they’ve made so far haven’t done much to boost turnout among those already registered. The share who report that they are certain to vote in this year’s contests has risen just slightly since September, and interest in news about the campaign has held steady.

Among all adults, 38 percent say they’d like the Democrats to wind up in control of Congress, to 36 percent for the Republicans. But the party holds a significant lead among those most likely to cast ballots: 47 percent of these voters favor a Republican controlled-Congress, 39 percent a Democratic one. That’s a shift in the party’s favor since an AP-GfK poll in late September, when the two parties ran about evenly among likely voters.

Women have moved in the Republicans’ direction since September. In last month’s AP-GfK poll, 47 percent of female likely voters said they favored a Democratic-controlled Congress while 40 percent wanted the Republicans to capture control. In the new poll, the two parties are about even among women, 44 percent prefer the Republicans, 42 percent the Democrats.

In all, the poll finds that 55 percent of likely voters now expect Republicans to win control of the Senate, up from 47 percent last month. Democrats have grown slightly more pessimistic on this count since September, with 25 percent expecting the Republicans to take control now compared with 18 percent earlier.

What’s deeply important to likely voters after the economy? About three-quarters say health care, terrorism, the threat posed by the Islamic State group and Ebola.

On foreign affairs, Republicans have the upper hand. By a 22-point margin, voters trust them more to protect the U.S., and they give the Republicans a 10-point lead as more trusted to handle international crises. Democrats have a slim advantage on health care, 36 percent to 32 percent.

Although handling the Ebola outbreak was among the top issues for likely voters, the poll shows little sign that either party could capitalize on fears of the virus as an election issue. More than half said either that they trust both parties equally (29 percent) or that they don’t trust either party (24 percent) to handle public health issues like Ebola. The remaining respondents were about equally split between trusting Republicans (25 percent) and Democrats (22 percent).

Same-sex marriage? Only 32 percent said that was an extremely or very important issue to them personally, identical to the percentage saying so in September, before the Supreme Court effectively allowed same-sex marriages to proceed in five more states.

The poll, which asked likely voters whom they preferred among the candidates in the congressional district where they live, found Republicans hold an edge in the upcoming elections. Forty percent said they would vote for the Republican candidate in their House district, while 32 percent said the Democrat. About a quarter backed a third-party candidate or were undecided.

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Online:

AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com

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