Week 2 DFS: The art of figuring out what’s a trend and what’s a fluke
Remember when Sam Bradford and the Vikings absolutely shredded the Saints’ D in Week 1 last season?
Seriously, the same Sam Bradford who looked washed up in his Cardinals debut this past weekend against Washington. He couldn’t buy a first down Sunday, but 12 months ago, he lit up the Saints for 346 yards.
I bring this up because we’re likely to hear about how terrible the Saints’ D is again this week after Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bucs dropped nearly 50 points on them in the Super Dome.
And if there’s one thing I dislike more than preseason practice reports and snap counts — it’s the reaction to Week 1.
That’s not to say there isn’t useful information to be gleaned from it (Hello, Phillip Lindsay), but understand that we’re dealing with a small sample size. Chris Hogan, Kenyan Drake and David Njoku shouldn’t be labeled as fantasy busts any more than you should consider Fitzpatrick as an MVP contender.
The best thing you can do heading into Week 2 is stick to your guns, and if there was a player you liked before Week 1 that the public has suddenly soured on, don’t be afraid to go right back to the well and take advantage of reduced ownership.
Now, let’s dive into some DFS targets in Week 2.
Case Keenum ($6,300 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel): His Broncos debut wasn’t perfect – he threw three picks – but Keenum also tossed three TDs and threw for over 300 yards. There’s a lot of talent on this offense, and the Raiders are another prime matchup.
Dalvin Cook ($6,500 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel): Cook forced 10 missed tackles in Week 1 according to Pro Football Focus. He’s athletic, strong and elusive. Cook, who also had seven targets, is only this cheap because he’s coming off of a torn ACL in 2017. Get in now before the price goes through the roof.
Dion Lewis ($5,000 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel): Lewis had 16 carries and eight targets in his first game with the Titans, and though I expect Derrick Henry to be more involved moving forward, that shouldn’t be this week. The Titans will need Lewis’ versatility against the Texans.
JuJu Smith-Schuster ($6,400 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel): Let’s start with the fact that Smith-Schuster gets to run routes against this Chiefs secondary in Week 2. Don’t worry about Antonio Brown gobbling up targets. Brown was targeted 16 times in Week 1, and Smith-Schuster still had eight targets and 118 yards. The masses will gravitate toward Brown in this potential shootout. Take the savings and lower ownership with nearly as much upside.
Keenan Allen ($7,800 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel): Do not fade Allen. I repeat, do not fade Allen. We often talk about Brown, Julio Jones or Odell Beckham Jr. as the top receivers in the NFL, but Allen deserves to be in the conversation. This week he faces the Bills, a team he ripped for 12-159-2 last season.
George Kittle ($3,800 DraftKings/$5,600 FanDuel): It wasn’t a pretty start for tight ends not named Rob Gronkowski, and things only got worse with injuries to Greg Olsen and Delanie Walker. Kittle, at least, drew nine targets in Week 1 and finished with 90 yards. He has flashed potential going back to his rookie season in 2017, and it’s starting to look more like a trend than a blip.