Uranium Market Outlook - Q3 2018: Optimism on a Turn-Around of The Uranium Market Should Not be Overstated - ResearchAndMarkets.com
The most recent issue (Uranium Market Outlook - Q2 2018) noted that the geopolitical shift from western to emerging countries has had a crucial effect on the uranium market; for example, strongly growing uranium demand from China and Russia will be mostly supplied by already existing international joint venture agreements with Kazakhstan.
In September 2015, Jonathan Hinze of UxConsulting Company (UxC) at the WNA Annual Symposium said that with global uranium inventories upwards of 1.1billion pounds U3O8 equivalent (423,100 tU) were likely to drive the uranium market for some time to come, affecting not just uranium suppliers, but also the conversion ad enrichment industries. At that time the U3O8 spot price and long-term price were $ 36.50/lb and $ 45.00/lb, respectively
Today, 3 years later, at prices of $ 26.20 and $ 31.50, respectively, China, Russia and India together are currently accounting for 30 reactors under construction and 72 reactors planned, representing 54% and 47% respectively of the world total. With the required uranium to feed future operational reactors, this is broadly seen as the key driver of a strong uranium price recovery.
Based on the current supply situation, with the USA with 99 reactors hosting 22% of the World’s 452 operable reactors and in 2017 having required 18,996 tonnes U (30% of the world total of 65,014 tonnes), according to the WNA, it is notable that Russia supplies 45.5% of US imports of enriched uranium and Canada 90.6% of natural uranium imports. This means that for the USA there is no urgent need to lower imports of more than 90% of the uranium it uses other than for political tensions.
The overview below of world nuclear power reactors and uranium required in 2017 confirms the dominance of the U.S. on nuclear energy generation and as such the provider if clean energy, despite an only limited added share of renewable’s.
Considering that globalization is creating a new economical world order, it is interesting to see which countries are supplying uranium. This is of crucial importance for the course of uranium pricing and is disturbing the long-awaited strong recovery to a pre-Fukushima price level of $ 65-70/lb to enable an economically viable production.
Anticipating a strong growth of nuclear reactors under construction and of planned reactors, led by China, Russia and India, which three emerging countries accounting for 54% of reactors under construction and 47% planned, it is important to know which countries will meet supply of the required uranium.
Key Topics CoveredOptimism on a turn-around of the uranium market should not be overstatedShift In geological blocks is dictating non-transparent uranium marketParis Climate Agreement confirms essential contribution of nuclear energy as the only large-scale source to limit global warmingIEA says policy change is needed to raise nuclear capacityWNA expects new nuclear capacity in 2018 and 2019 to increase to more than 26 GWe, to meet the overall target for its Harmony programmeChina and Russia to dominate international sales of nuclear plantsEuropean Union, profiling itself as a leader in promoting action on climate change but fails to act accordinglyPhasing out Germany’s nuclear reactors in conflict with EU energy policyUnited States dominates global energy marketsFossil fuels remain to have most influence on Trump’s energy policyUS leadership on climate change not affected by withdrawal from Paris Climate AgreementAmerican uranium imports by supplying countryPolitical tensions flare between the US and Russia could put the vital supply line of enriched uranium exported from Russia to the United States at serious riskCall for US government to revitalize its nuclear industryUS Congress approves US$ 1.2 billion budget for nuclear energyUS uranium mine production in 2017 55% less than in 2016Energy Fuels and Ur-Energy jointly filed a petition with the U.S. Commerce Department to investigate effects of uranium imports on U.S. national energyJapan releases draft of updated basic engineering policy for 2030China to dominate future global nuclear power market, including expansion abroadIncluding environmental protection, vigorous development of nuclear power is requiredChina switches focus of Belt and Road Initiative from Asian to African countriesChina deepens African ties with $ 60 billion pledgeChina National Nuclear Corporation holds 25% in Paladin Energy’s Langer Heinrich uranium mine in NamibiaCNNC International holds largest equity position in SOMINA joint venture in NigerRestructuring JV Inkai between Kazatomprom and Cameco effected on January 1, 2018 Cameco’s ownership interest lowered from 60% to 40%Inkai Mineral Reserves and Mineral Resources of the Inkai operationsYellowcake makes first uranium purchase of 8.81 million pounds from KazatompromCanada’s 2018 uranium production - fully provided by Cameco, expected to fall by 47%Exploration costsFinancial and operating results Q2 2018Updated 2018 outlook2019 Outlook for production, delivery volumes and purchasesUranium mine ban for Western Australia and Queensland jeopardizes the country’s reputation as the world’s third-ranking uranium producerERA Energy Resources of Australia - 68% owned by Rio TintoAiming to supply 25% of electricity from nuclear power by 2050India plans to tenfold uranium output growthOther countries to be in favour of nuclear energy
Companies FeaturedA-Cap ResourcesAura EnergyBannerman ResourcesBerkeley EnergiaBlue Sky UraniumCamecoDeep YellowForsys MetalsGoviExKazatompromPlateau Energy MetalsU3O8 CorpUxConsulting CompanyYellowcake
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PUB: 11/14/2018 05:24 AM/DISC: 11/14/2018 05:24 AM