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Scott Rasmussen: Which will be lesser of two evils on Election Day?

November 20, 2018

For the past two years, many Democrats thought that victory in 2018 would simply be a matter of running against Donald Trump. The only question in the minds of some activists was how big the “blue wave” would be.

For those in the party, opposing the president seemed to be enough. Two-thirds of Democrats (64 percent) believe that Hillary Clinton would have won the election without any Russian interference. Seventy-four percent of Democrats believe Trump should be impeached and removed from office.

While those positions make sense to partisan Democrats, the fact remains that most other voters disagree. As a result, running against the president may not be enough.

That approach didn’t work two years ago because 10 percent of voters cast their ballot for candidate Trump despite thinking he was unqualified to serve as president of the United States. Those voters made him President Trump simply because they perceived him as the lesser of two evils.

It is possible, and perhaps likely, that many undecided midterm voters are once again trying to decide which team is the lesser of two evils. While many have doubts about the current president, only 35 percent believe the country would be better off today if Hillary Clinton had won. A slightly larger number (41 percent) believe things would be worse with Clinton in the White House.

So, which team will be the lesser of two evils in Election 2018?

At ScottRasmussen.com, we took a look at the voters who have not yet decided how they will vote (or IF they will vote). The president’s job approval is just 41 percent among these uncommitted voters. If the election is purely a referendum on Trump, these voters might break heavily for the Democrats.

On the other hand, just 16 percent of these uncommitted voters believe life would be better if Clinton had won. Thirty-six percent think things would be worse. In many ways, these voters are hoping there is a way for both teams to lose.

That background explains why the migrant caravan of people fleeing El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras could have a significant impact on the final results. It’s an issue the president wants to talk about and the Democrats want to avoid. That’s because 79 percent of all voters believe illegal immigration is bad for the nation.

What about all those uncommitted voters? Sixty-five percent of them support sending U.S. military troops to the southern border to enforce the law. Fifty-seven percent believe that at least some of the participants in the caravan present a national security threat.

Even more dramatically, only 10 percent of the uncommitted voters want people admitted into the U.S. without a case-by-case review. Two-thirds (66 percent) believe that they should either be turned away at the border or held in a detention center.

In other words, the migrant caravan is precisely the sort of issue the president wants uncommitted voters to focus on in the closing days of the campaign. It’s an issue that uncommitted voters might just conclude makes Republicans the lesser of two evils.

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