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More Grammy nominees makes winning a greater challenge

February 4, 2019

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) — More nominees in the top categories and vote splitting makes this year’s Grammy Awards a hard prediction. After expanding from five to eight nominees this year in four all-genre categories, could women and rap music finally prevail against the odds?

Awards analyst Ben Zauzmer uses data to predict award show outcomes like the Oscars. He said increasing the number of nominees reduces the percentage of votes needed to win, but it also means there’s more competition for those votes.

He said that his best guess is that adding more nominees will reward songs or artists that have truly devoted fans among the Grammy voters. But he also said in the long term, more nominees could lead to more surprise upsets in those categories.

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