Minnesota Poll, taken before assault allegation, finds divide over Brett Kavanaugh

September 17, 2018

Minnesotans are evenly split on the U.S. Supreme Court nomination of Brett Kavanaugh in a new Star Tribune-MPR News Minnesota Poll, that was taken before an allegation of sexual assault against him surfaced.

In the poll conducted Sept. 10-12, 40 percent supported President Donald Trumps choice for the nations high court, while 39 percent were opposed. Another 21 percent were undecided.

Late Sunday, the Washington Post reported that a California college professor is alleging that Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her when they were both high school students in the 1980s. Her account is roiling the Trump White Houses efforts to get Kavanaugh confirmed to the Supreme Court, where he is seen as likely to move its balance of power to the right by forming a majority conservative bloc on many issues with four other justices.

That could have major ramifications for the future of Roe v. Wade, the landmark 1973 decision that legalized abortion nationwide. And, while the poll identified mixed feelings about Kavanaugh, it found a strong statewide majority in favor of keeping Roe v. Wade in place.

Support for Roe v. Wade is at 59 percent statewide, and is above 50 percent in every region of the state. Only a small minority statewide, 12 percent, said the law should be overturned, while 26 percent said it should be modified.

The poll is based on interviews with 800 likely voters, 40 percent by cellphone and 60 percent by landline. It has a margin of sampling error of 3.5 percentage points, plus or minus.

If confirmed by the U.S. Senate, Kavanaugh, a judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit, could become the swing vote in the fate of the 45-year-old Roe decision. Thats been a long-held goal of abortion opponents.

In testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee, Kavanaugh called Roe v. Wades right to abortion as settled law and an important precedent. But supporters of legal abortion are worried that he would still side with the courts more conservative justices in allowing government to put stricter limits on access.

Its my right to decide what I do with my body. Thats a basic human right, said Alison Greydanus, 47, who lives in New York Mills and manages a trucking company.

Greydanus said she supports the Roe decision: Its one of the reasons I vote Democrat, almost exclusively. She said she opposed Kavanaughs nomination even before the most recent allegation.

There shouldnt be such a rush to put him on the bench, Greydanus said. And I think it would treatment my civil and human rights.

For some polled, support for Roe vs. Wade didnt mean opposition to Kavanaughs appointment.

There are situations where (abortion is) necessary, said Richard Gross, an 83-year-old retiree from Barnesville, and a Republican. At the same time, Im in favor of Mr. Kavanaugh. I dont think we have to worry about overturning Roe v. Wade.

Glen Davis wants it overturned and he wants Kavanaugh on the court. The 78-year-old minister from Fairmont said abortion is his number one issue as a voter.

We need judges, not lawmakers. I think hes a good man. I think hed support the Constitution, Davis said, adding that abortion is not the only factor in his support for Kavanaugh.

Kavanaugh found his highest support in northern Minnesota, the part of the state where Trump has proven most consistently popular, and where 50 percent of those polled back the nomination. He was at his lowest ebb in the DFL strongholds of Hennepin and Ramsey counties, at 30 percent support. His support is also highly polarized by political party: 96 percent of Republicans want Kavanaugh confirmed, and just 3 percent of Democrats.

Support for Roe v. Wade is higher among Hennepin/Ramsey counties residents, women and Democrats. In the Minnesota Poll, 70 percent of those surveyed in Hennepin and Ramsey counties support keeping the law whereas 51 percent of participants in the rest of the Twin Cities, 52 percent of participants in northern Minnesota and 59 percent of southern Minnesota participants do. Among the 12 percent of Minnesotans surveyed who want the law completely overturned, the percentage 15 percent was highest among northern and southern Minnesota participants.

Party divides reared up in views of Roe v. Wade, but to a lesser extent. While 80 percent of Democrats wanting the law to stay and zero want it overturned, 28 percent of Republicans want it to stay in place, 40 percent want it modified and 30 percent want it overturned.

Minnesotas two U.S. senators, Democrats Amy Klobuchar and Tina Smith, came out in opposition to Kavanaughs nomination prior to the sexual assault allegations. Smith, a former Planned Parenthood executive, called him a serious threat to womens freedom to make their own health care choices.

Abortion rights supporters have pointed to a 2003 e-mail that Kavanaugh wrote as a lawyer in George W. Bushs White House, where he wrote that he wasnt sure that all legal scholars refer to Roe as the settled law of the land at the Supreme Court level since Court can always overrule its precedent, and three current Justices on the Court would do so. According to the New York Times, Kavanaugh dismissed that e-mail, saying he was reflecting an accurate description of all legal scholars, not expressing his own opinion.

Sarah Stoesz, president and CEO of Planned Parenthood of Minnesota and the Dakotas, said the Senates decision on Kavanaugh would determine our fate for generations to come. She said the organizations job would be to make sure those who support Roe v. Wade see a link between Roes future and the way they vote in November

Bill Poehler, the communications director for the anti-abortion group Minnesota Citizens Concerned for Life, said hes skeptical that Roe v. Wade support is as broad as the Minnesota Poll suggested. He said people who hear more details of abortion rates in the years since the 1973 ruling are less likely to be supportive.

Most people would have a hard time naming even a recent Supreme Court case, Poehler said. The fact that Roe continues to be discussed 45 years later and is central to confirmation hearings indicates that the public is not comfortable with the ruling.

Kelly Martinson, a freelance writer from St. Paul, said the latest allegation against Kavanaugh should disqualify him from the Supreme Court.

Its always tough when things come up from so long ago, but I understand fully and completely why those things are buried for 30 years, said Martinson, who said she is a survivor of sexual abuse.

Calling Kavanaughs comment on Roe v. Wade wishy-washy and unclear, Martinson said shes worried about about the rulings future.

Id like to believe its settled law, she said, but conservatives have been working for a long time to stack the courts.

Were the Supreme Court to strike down Roe v. Wade, its likely that decisions on abortion laws would return to the states. Davis, the retired minister who participated in the poll, said he hopes Minnesota would outlaw it.

Let the states decide instead of the federal government, Davis said. Im 100 percent for life.

Star Tribune staff writer Judy Keen contributed to this story.

Update hourly