The housing market
Housing has historically been a harbinger of recession — most dramatically in the financial collapse of 2008, which was caused by a real estate bubble fueled by too-easy credit. This time may be different.
Home sales and residential investment have started to sag over the past couple of quarters. But there was no building boom, post-recession mortgage underwriting has been much more solid, and any drop-off in the housing market has been blamed on rising interest rates — as well as high home prices.
Still, home building and real estate accounts for a significant portion of the US economy and a slowdown in housing, for whatever reason, amounts to a slowdown in economic activity, even if it’s not the catastrophe of the last recession.