AP-GfK Poll: Clinton seen as most likely winner if nominated
Oct. 21, 2015
WASHINGTON (AP) — The vast majority of Democrats have a favorable view of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows her recovering lost ground within her own party since the summer.
Among all major candidates for the presidency, she is viewed as most likely to win next November, if nominated.
Some things to know about public opinion on the Democratic field, according to the poll released Tuesday.
CLINTON, BIDEN MOST ELECTABLE
Along with being the most popular within her party, Clinton has a big advantage on perceptions she is a general election winner. Nine in 10 Democrats think it would be possible for Clinton to win the general election if she were the nominee, while seven in 10 say the same of Vice President Joe Biden, who hasn't said whether he will run.
Democrats are divided on whether Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders could win a general election, with 52 percent saying he could and 46 percent saying he could not.
It's not just Democrats who view Clinton as a possible winner. Three-quarters of those questioned think Clinton could win in a general election, including two-thirds of Republicans.
By comparison, 56 percent of respondents think Biden could win and just 44 percent think Sanders could. Less than half of people surveyed said they think any of the Republican candidates for president could win in a general election.
CLINTON UNITES DEMOCRATS
Nearly 8 in 10 Democrats now have a favorable opinion of Clinton. That's a slight improvement for Clinton since July, when 7 in 10 Democrats said they viewed her favorably.
It also makes her better rated among Democrats than her Sanders and Biden,
Seven in 10 Democrats view Biden favorably, while half say the same about Sanders. Sanders isn't necessarily unpopular among Democrats, who are about equally likely to have unfavorable opinions of each of the three top Democrats.
But he is still an unknown factor to many within his own party, one-third of whom say they don't know enough about him to have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion.
Clinton is the best-liked candidate among self-described liberal Democrats, too, with 84 percent saying they have a positive opinion of her, compared with 76 percent for Biden and 64 percent for Sanders.
BIDEN BEST ON HONESTY, LIKABILITY
Of the three top Democratic contenders, Clinton also has an advantage among Democrats as the candidate most likely to be described as very or somewhat decisive, inspiring, and competent, with large majorities saying each of those words describe her at least somewhat well.
But on some characteristics, Biden would set himself apart from Clinton.
Democrats are more likely to describe Biden than Clinton as at least somewhat honest, 72 percent to 60 percent, and likable, 77 percent to 69 percent.
Biden and Clinton are both viewed as at least somewhat compassionate by over 7 in 10 Democrats, though Biden bests Clinton on that measure among Americans as a whole.
Two-thirds of Democrats say they prefer someone who has experience in Washington and can get things done over someone who is a Washington outsider and can change how things are done — a desire that appears to favor Clinton or Biden over Sanders.
BIDEN VIEWED AS INDECISIVE BY MOST AMERICANS
After months of speculation over whether he will enter the race for the Democratic nomination, most Americans — 56 percent — view Biden as not being only slightly or not at all decisive.
But most Democrats are still willing to give Biden the benefit of the doubt on that measure, with 6 in 10 of them saying the word describes him at least somewhat well
AMERICANS DIVIDED ON DEMOCRATIC FIELD
As a whole, 41 percent of those questioned have a favorable opinion of Clinton and 48 percent have an unfavorable opinion. That's essentially unchanged since July, a leveling off for Clinton after a dip in her ratings since earlier in the year.
Clinton continues to struggle with questions about her honesty, as more than 6 in 10 people surveyed say that word describes her only slightly well or less.
Biden has a favorable rating from 40 percent of respondents and an unfavorable rating from 39 percent. They also are about equally split on Sanders, 32 percent favorable to 30 percent unfavorable.
Women are more likely than men to have a favorable opinion of Clinton, 47 percent to 36 percent.
The AP-GfK Poll of 1,027 adults was conducted online October 15 to October 19, using a sample drawn from GfK's probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn't otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them.
AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com
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