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Kalama Methanol Plant Offers Strong Prospects for Net Global Greenhouse Gas Reduction Benefits

December 14, 2018

SEATTLE--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Dec 13, 2018--Independent analysis published by the Low Carbon Prosperity Institute (LCPI) finds compelling evidence that the most likely outcome from production of methanol at the Kalama Methanol Manufacturing and Marine Export Facility (KMMEF) is a net global greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction benefit in the short, medium, and long-term.

The new analysis examines various scenarios of life-cycle GHG emissions attributable to KMMEF methanol production, and the range of net global GHG change likely to result from methanol or other end-use product displacement.

“Natural gas-based methanol produced at the facility is highly likely to displace coal-based methanol production elsewhere, providing a net annual reduction of 2.3 to 7.2 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide through at least 2030, assuming full production capacity,” said Kevin Tempest, R&D Scientist at the LCPI, who served as lead author of the report.

The analysis applied sensitivities to evaluate the range of GHG emissions from supply chain methane leakage in addition to power demand, the combustion of natural gas at the facility, and voluntary mitigation activities.

“While the margin of success narrows under a scenario of pipeline leakage exceeding the expected supply stream, the project is still likely to result in net GHG reduction because of significant elimination of much more carbon intensive coal-based methanol in the marketplace,” added Tempest. “This highlights the importance of working towards and improving industry best practice of low methane leakage sources of natural gas, while keeping the door open over the long-term for carbon-capture and biogas feedstock approaches. The voluntary mitigation of around one million tons of GHGs per year can make a very material difference if done with the highest quality approaches.”

A “Win-Win” for Washington

David Giuliani, LCPI’s Co-Founder and Chief Engineer, believes data-based analysis is key to guiding society to a low carbon future.

“This type of project may not be carbon-free, but its lower carbon attributes are attractive and demonstrate alignment with deep decarbonization globally,” said Giuliani. “Ultimately, Washington’s greatest impact on emissions will come from the export of clean products and innovative technologies. The Kalama facility appears to be a win-win, providing economic benefits to a rural community and contributing to a lower carbon future.”

According to industry analyst Jan Thijssen, “The methanol plant as planned appears to be state-of-the-art in terms of efficiency, so compared with any other fossil-based methanol production in the world (basically 100% of current methanol production), GHG emissions from this plant should likely be better.”

The analysis suggests that new industrial facilities can have a strong role to play in a low-carbon future so long as two major factors are in place: (1) The feedstock displaced is primarily coal; and (2) much lower GHG pathways are unlikely to provide a substantial market share over the lifetime of the facility AND the facility cannot reasonably convert to at least match emissions intensities of those lower GHG pathways. Tempest argues that “in both cases, KMMEF appears likely to meet those criteria.”

LCPI Recommendations to Ensure Immediate Low-Carbon Outcomes

The LCPI makes several recommendations which can deliver even greater certainty that KMMEF is compatible with a current and future low-carbon economy. These include:

Use purchasing power to promote industry best practices for controlling natural gas source emissions and to ensure highest-standard mitigations; Work toward rapid displacement of coal.

This analysis was commissioned under contract by Northwest Innovation Works (NWIW). The analysis and conclusions are LCPI’s alone. The full report, citations and analysis can be found at: https://www.lowcarbonprosperity.org/2018/12/13/Washington-methanol-plant-likely-net-GHG-benefits/

About the Low Carbon Prosperity Institute

The Low Carbon Prosperity Institute was launched in 2018 as a project of the Washington Business Alliance and its PLAN Washington agenda. The Institute’s system design approach delivers the strategic guidance needed for states and countries to achieve long-term success in reducing greenhouse gases, reducing other waste, and building an even more powerful economy. LCPI uses a modeling system, the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Explorer, considered the “Gold Standard” for evaluating strategies proposals for managing climate-sensitive waste reduction. With powerful entrepreneurial management skills, LCPI believes in the power of business leadership, bipartisan problem solving, and data-driven public policy. Learn more at https://www.lowcarbonprosperity.org/.

View source version on businesswire.com:https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20181213005964/en/

CONTACT: Kevin Tempest, 206-300-6126

kevin@wabusinessalliance.orgDavid Giuliani, 206-465-6852

david@lowcarbonprosperity.org

KEYWORD: UNITED STATES NORTH AMERICA WASHINGTON

INDUSTRY KEYWORD: ENERGY COAL OIL/GAS MANUFACTURING CHEMICALS/PLASTICS ENVIRONMENT

SOURCE: Low Carbon Prosperity Institute

Copyright Business Wire 2018.

PUB: 12/13/2018 07:09 PM/DISC: 12/13/2018 07:09 PM

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20181213005964/en

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