Rams-Chiefs could be headed for highest over-under betting total ever

November 12, 2018

The NFL’s best shootout of the season could happen this coming week in Mexico City, and the folks in Las Vegas are not messing around with it.

In what is believed to be the highest opening point total since at least 1986, the Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City Chiefs currently have an over-under of 64 combined points for their Week 11 game, according to ESPN. The Rams are a 1-point favorite despite them losing WR Cooper Kupp to a season-ending knee injury on Sunday.

It’s no surprise, though, when you consider that the Chiefs are second in the NFL at 35.3 points per game and the Rams are third at 33.5. Only the Saints at 36.7 ppg rank higher than they do. QBs Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff are in the MVP discussion, along with Rams RB Todd Gurley. Each team is loaded with offensive weaponry, making for what could be one of the best offensive battles in a season loaded with great shootouts.

The 2000 Rams-49ers game closed at 63 — the highest in the annals of Pro Football Reference. That game failed to go over with a combined 58-points in the Rams’ 34-24 win that season. Anything 56 or higher once was considered an astronomical NFL point total; prior to this season, there only had been 32 games between 1977 and 2017 that were at the number or higher. But this season alone there have been seven games posted at 56 or north of there.

Interestingly, the “over” has hit on four of those seven games. The highest previous Vegas O/U prior to Week 11 had been the Chiefs-Patriots game in Week 6, which went over with a combined total of 83 in the Patriots’ 43-40 win.

The Rams and their opponents have combined for 64 points or more in four of their 10 games this season, with a high-water mark of 80 in a 45-35 loss to the Saints in Week 9. The Chiefs have hit that 64 number in four of their 10 games, as well. Only 13 other NFL games this season have combined to total 64 points or more this season.

The game will be held in Mexico City’s Azteca Stadium, which sits at an approximate elevation of 7,300 feet, as part of the NFL’s International Series. In the three previous games there — 49ers-Cardinals in 2005, Raiders-Texans in 2016 and Raiders-Patriots in 2017 — the average combined scoring total has been 44.3 points. Two of those three games went over the Vegas O/U totals.

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