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How Democrats lost Kavanaugh vote: Darcy cartoon

October 9, 2018

How Democrats lost Kavanaugh vote: Darcy cartoon

CLEVELAND, Ohio -- Democrats lost the Kavanaugh confirmation vote two years ago when they lost the 2016 presidential election.  And they will lose more elections if the pursue a baseless impeachment of Justice Kavanaugh.

When watching the women’s marches following President Trump’s inauguration, and the intense protests against Kavanaugh’s confirmation, I wondered how many of those protesting actually voted in the 2016 election, and if they had, how many actually voted for Hillary Clinton.

Fewer young and Latino women voted for Hillary Clinton than Barack Obama. Only 34% of white women voted for Hillary Clinton, who would have been the first elected female President of the United States.    Just 51% of college-educated women voted for Hillary Clinton.  

How many of those passionate Kavanaugh protestors were more passionate for Bernie Sanders than Hillary and didn’t vote or voted for a third party candidate?

Democrats and the protestors lost their real power to shape the U.S. Supreme Court when they lost the presidential election, in large part, because they didn’t turnout to vote like they had for Barack Obama.

Unlike Republicans, it doesn’t seem to ever fully register with Democrats that when they are voting for president, they are also voting for the opportunity to shape the U.S. Supreme Court.   Democrats always seem to realize that fact too late.

In the 2016 election, the Supreme Court was a bigger factor in voting for Republicans than it was for Democrats.  An NBC poll showed that the Supreme Court was the most important factor for 27% of Trump voters, compared to 19% of Clinton voters.   A CNN poll showed SCOTUS was the most important issue for 56% of Trump voters compared to 41% of Clinton voters.

Many Republicans  have said they held their nose and voted for Trump for the chance to shape the U.S. Supreme Court.

As in 2016, Kavanaugh polls shouldn’t be fully trusted.

Polls on Kavanaugh’s disapproval/approval maybe shouldn’t be trusted, just as it turned out the 2016 presidential election polling shouldn’t have been trusted.

During the Kavanaugh confirmation process it was constantly reported that Kavanaugh was the most unpopular Supreme Court Nominee.   The reality is, polls were showing the favorability,unfavorability,undecided numbers were all in the 30% range.   New polls show 51% of Americans oppose Kavanaugh’s confirmation.

As was the case with Trump in 2016, there is a good chance that some people being polled on Kavanaugh and Dr. Christine Blasey Ford weren’t answering honestly, if they responded at all. 

It’s now clear that more people voted for Trump in 2016 than admitted to pollsters that they were Trump supporters.    Dr. Ford’s courage and testimony  were highly praised with her testimony receiving no critical scrutiny that it would in a normal police investigation or trial, with the exception of sex-crimes prosecutor Rachel Mitchell’s memo, which few read.    Kavanaugh’s testimony was ridiculed in the media.  So people who thought something was a little off about Dr. Ford and her story, or that she wasn’t believable at all, and those who thought Kavanaugh was right to be outraged, were not likely to admit that to pollsters, just like they weren’t going to admit they were voting for Trump in 2016.  

Democrats could try to impeach a potential SCOTUS swing vote.

Some bitter Democrats are talking about pursuing investigations and possible impeachment of Kavanaugh if they win Congressional control in the midterms.  That’s a great way to get out the vote for Republicans, who have a better record of showing up to vote, than Democrats.   That would also be targeting a potential swing vote on the Court.

Justice Elena Kagan hired Kavanaugh to be a Harvard Law School professor when she was the Law School’s dean.   That should tell you something about how she regards Kavanaugh.

Sen Susan Collins review of over 300 Kavanaugh rulings, writings and speeches, found him to be more of centrist than his critics would admit.   Collins believes Kavanaugh’s Obamacare-related ruling helped shape Chief Justice John Roberts’ favorable Obamacare ruling.

Kavanaugh had been a clerk for Justice Kennedy, who reportedly recommended to Trump that he nominate Kavanaugh to replace him.  Kavanaugh was sworn in by Kennedy at the White House ceremonial event Monday.

Roberts and Kavanaugh are now the two most likely swing votes on the Court, based of Kavanaugh’s judicial record and Justice Kennedy’s endorsement.

Democrats in danger of overconfidence they showed in 2016.

The fact that Democrats are talking about impeaching Kavanaugh is another sign they fully haven’t learned the lessons from 2016 and are overconfident about winning the midterms and 2020 election, like they were in 2016.

Democrats are underestimating the support for Kavanaugh and belief that Democrats overreached, like they underestimated support for Trump in 2016.

They are also overlooking the fact that Trump has successes that can resonate with all midterm voters, not just Republicans.   His trade bill is being well received.  He can point to low unemployment numbers and a good economy.  The Blue Wave may be on a roll, but so is Trump. 

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