AP NEWS
Related topics

Amid positive jobs numbers, US pols hedge bets

July 4, 2014

WASHINGTON (AP) — The top jobs numbers for June would have seemed to be cause for some appreciation in the U.S. After all, the unemployment rate dipped to 6.1 percent, the lowest in six years, and hiring showed five months of steady growth.

But the American public continues to perceive the economy as poor.

So, heading into a midterm congressional election campaign season with control of the U.S. Senate at stake, politicians on Thursday hedged their bets and pointed fingers.

“In the voting booth, economic perception beats economic statistics every time,” Republican pollster Whit Ayres said.

Indeed, after five months of steady job growth and after hitting a six-year low in unemployment, the reaction in Washington Thursday was a collective, “Yeah, but ...”

Even President Barack Obama, who would be eager to take credit for an economy on the mend, felt compelled to throw in a dampening caveat as he drew attention to the 288,000 jobs created in June, to the lower 6.1 percent unemployment rate and to the fastest job growth since 1999.

“As much progress as has been made, there are still folks out there who are struggling,” he said Thursday. “We still have not seen as much increase in income and wages as we’d like to see. A lot of folks are still digging themselves out of challenges that arose out of the Great Recession.”

Republicans, who already control the House of Representatives, hope to capitalize on Americans’ continued frustrations with the economy and capture the Senate from Democrats.

To be sure, there are real economic reasons to be wary, or at least not euphoric, over the most recent report.

The labor market remains weak, with a labor force participation rate stuck at 62.8 percent, the lowest since 1978. Construction jobs reached their highest since June 2009 but are still more than 1.7 million jobs below its 2006 peak, according to an analysis of jobs numbers by the Associated General Contractors of America.

Moreover, hiring has tended to be predominantly in low wage jobs, leading to stagnant wage growth, and the number of hours worked per week has not changed.

“The headline number masks the lingering structural weakness in the U.S. labor market,” said Lindsey Piegza, a chief economist at the Sterne Agee brokerage.

“Even if we saw June’s rate of job growth every month from here on out, we still wouldn’t get back to health in the labor market for another 2 1/2 years,” said Heidi Shierholz of the liberal Economic Policy Institute.

More important, beyond those statistics, are public perceptions of the economy.

An Associated Press-GfK poll in May, found that the share of those surveyed who called the economy “good” stood at 34 percent, while 65 percent described it as poor. That’s about the same as it has been all year, though slightly above where it was during the partial government shutdown in October. Few expect improvement in the economy over the next 12 months, and more expected it to get worse.

The perceptions have a partisan hue, as well.

Economic confidence as measured by Gallup found Democrats had the highest and Republicans the lowest. In the face of that, politicians are not likely to cheer an economic number.

Democrats and Republicans want to blame each other for not enacting policies they say would create more jobs. So Obama complains about Republicans not increasing the minimum wage and Republican House Speaker John Boehner says Obama has failed to lead on issues such as trade and workplace flexibility.

“In order for us to make real progress, the president must do more than criticize,” Boehner said.

With the economy still emerging as the top issue of the day with a plurality of voters, each side will continue to brand the other as uncompromising obstructionists. And even if the economic trends show improvement, the fall campaign season may be coming too quickly to change the battleground.

“It takes a long time for economic statistics to be felt in people’s pocketbooks,” Ayres said. “It may be too late at this point to affect the political environment of the midterm elections.”

___

Associated Press Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this report.

___

Follow Jim Kuhnhenn on Twitter at http://twitter.com/jkuhnhenn

AP RADIO
Update hourly