Dwindling Surpluses Numbers
The latest federal surplus estimates for 2002 through 2011 made available Wednesday by Republicans and Democrats on the House Budget Committee. Last January, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projected surpluses over the decade totaling $5.6 trillion:
10-year surplus: $1.79 trillion.
They said $1.65 trillion of the drop, or 43 percent, will be due to the tax cut. They said $1.55 trillion, or more than 40 percent, will be due to the recession. Another $302 billion, or 8 percent, will be the anti-terrorism price tag, and $337 billion, or 9 percent, will come from spending increases for defense and other programs.
10-year surplus: $1.88 trillion, after subtracting their estimated costs for tax cut, economic and technical changes and anti-terrorism.
Of the drop from last January’s $5.6 trillion estimate, they said $1.72 trillion, or 46 percent, will come from economic and technical factors.
They said $1.66 trillion, or 45 percent, will be due to the tax cut and its resulting increase in federal debt service. And $344 billion, or 9 percent, will be due to anti-terrorism spending. They did not include costs of spending increases enacted last year for defense and other programs.
Technical changes refer to noneconomic factors, such as changes in the way projected spending under a particular program is estimated.